I've been spending a lot of time with this tree lately. I think that it must have lost its upper half some time ago; the scar doesn't look fresh, and after I'd contemplated it for a little while back in February, I noticed that it had re-rooted itself in itself, about ten feet up in the air. When we had our last snow that covered the ground (as opposed to last night's merest dusting), these buds and this tree were crazed and covered.
Today, the buds are open, even if only a little.
Just you wait and see.